Climate change impacts on Cassava production in Northeastern Thailand
Open Access
- Author:
- Sangpenchan, Ratchanok
- Graduate Program:
- Geography
- Degree:
- Master of Science
- Document Type:
- Master Thesis
- Date of Defense:
- None
- Committee Members:
- Brenton Yarnal, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor
Amy Glasmeier, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor
William Ewart Easterling Iii, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor - Keywords:
- Thailand
climate change impacts
Cassava - Abstract:
- Analyses conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) suggest that some regions of Southeast Asia will begin to experience warmer temperatures due to elevated CO2 concentrations. Since the projected change is expected to affect the agricultural sector, especially in the tropical climate zones, it is important to examine possible changes in crop yields and their bio-physiological responses to future climate conditions in these areas. This study employed a climate impact assessment to evaluate potential cassava root crop production in marginal areas of Northeast Thailand, using climate change projected by the CSIRO-Mk3 model for 2009–2038. The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model was then used to simulate cassava yield according to four scenarios based on combinations of CO2 fertilization effects scenarios (current CO2 level and 1% per year increase) and agricultural practice scenarios (with current practices and assumed future practices). Future practices are the result of assumed advances in agronomic technology that are likely to occur irrespective of climate change. They are not prompted by climate change per se, but rather by the broader demand for higher production levels. This thesis illustrates the potential impact on cassava production due to climate change, and the use of advanced technologies in agricultural practices that will probably occur in the future. Generally, crop losses stem from higher mean temperatures. However, there are also benefits from elevated CO2 concentrations. Depending on the climate change scenario without a CO2 fertilization effect, the average annual yield for cassava is projected to decrease from current production by 28%. CO2 fertilization effect cannot fully overcome these negative results. A positive increase in yield of about 35% is also projected in light of future adjustments in agricultural technology. Future cassava production in Northeast Thailand will be significantly affected by the climate change projected there, but detrimental effects may be mitigated by utilizing CO2 enrichment which promotes crop survival in marginal areas.