INCREASING RESILIENCE TO CONTEMPORARY AND FUTURE HURRICANE STORM SURGE THROUGH ADAPTATION PLANNING: A CASE STUDY FROM SARASOTA COUNTY, FLORIDA
Open Access
- Author:
- Frazier, Tim G
- Graduate Program:
- Geography
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- May 18, 2009
- Committee Members:
- Brenton Yarnal, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor
Brenton Yarnal, Committee Chair/Co-Chair
Alan Maceachren, Committee Member
John Anthony Kelmelis, Committee Member
Venkataraman Shankar, Committee Member - Keywords:
- Climate Change
Storm-surge
Hurricane
Resilience
Vulnerability
GIS
Adaptation
Planning - Abstract:
- This dissertation explores implications of the theory that sea level rise will enhance the vulnerability of coastal communities significantly by increasing the extent of storm-surge inundation and thus the size of risk zones in these communities. Research in Sarasota County, Florida sought to: (1) use GIS modeling to determine the vulnerability of Sarasota County to contemporary and sea level rise-enhanced storm surge; (2) use climate scenarios, focus groups, and participatory mapping to develop a collaborative methodological framework that combines the output from storm surge inundation modeling with stakeholder expertise to evaluate community long-range land-use plans from a hurricane hazards perspective; and (3) use semi-structured interviews and GIS to introduce the theoretical concept of spatial dependency into traditional vulnerability assessments. Modeling results show that much of Sarasota County’s population and assets lay in today’s hurricane storm surge zones. With sea level rise, the hazard zones increase considerably, putting significantly more people and assets at risk. Focus group results demonstrate that, in light of the storm surge modeling, Sarasota County participants saw the need to revise the county’s 2050 land use plan. The spatial dependency analysis showed that vulnerability assessments that do not incorporate this concept are insufficient because they do not account for interconnections with places outside the study area. In the end, the research demonstrated that Sarasota County is vulnerable to hurricane storm surge today and will be increasingly vulnerable in the future because of sea level rise and ever-increasing complexity of infrastructure; local experts now recognize this vulnerability and appear willing to take action to reduce it.