The Impact of Ethanol Production on Agricultural Land Use in Pennsylvania
Open Access
- Author:
- Minihan, Erin Smith
- Graduate Program:
- Agricultural Economics
- Degree:
- Master of Science
- Document Type:
- Master Thesis
- Date of Defense:
- August 15, 2008
- Committee Members:
- James Samuel Shortle, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor
- Keywords:
- ricardian rent
land use
biofuel
chesapeake bay - Abstract:
- This research examines the potential influence of biofuel production on agricultural land use in Pennsylvania. The first chapter applies a Ricardian land use model to Pennsylvania farmland located in the Chesapeake Bay basin to simulate cropchoices using three different levels of long-run corn grain prices in relation to other crops or conservation payments. In the baseline scenario ($3.99/bu), 11 percent of cropland is used to grow corn grain, a higher corn price ($4.43/bu) increases corn grain to 14.7 percent of cropland, and to 31.4 percent of cropland in the basin when corn price increases even further relative to other crop prices ($4.87/bu). The majority of these acres come from hay production. The second chapter tracks the forestation of farmland from 2000 to 2005, and uses logistic regression to determine the impact higher corn prices may have on agricultural use values, and subsequently forestation rates. The agricultural use value of farmland is negatively related to the probability of farmland converting to forest while adjacency to surface water or established forest cover increases forestation rates. The third chapter develops a framework for analyzing the potential for ethanol production to change the amount of land used to grow corn in Pennsylvania in the context of livestock agriculture. Data on livestock inventories, commodity prices, and agricultural land use are used to illustrate the importance of changes in dairy production for corn acres in Pennsylvania.