Understanding respiratory disease seasonality: quantitative characterization, mechanistic interpretation, and future projection
Open Access
- Author:
- Yang, Fuhan
- Graduate Program:
- Biology
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- June 04, 2024
- Committee Members:
- Elizabeth Mcgraw, Program Head/Chair
Ephraim Hanks, Outside Unit, Field & Minor Member
Jessica Conway, Chair of Committee
Ottar Bjornstad, Dissertation Co-Advisor
Maciej Boni, Dissertation Co-Advisor - Keywords:
- Respiratory disease dynamics
Seasonality
Stochasticity
Forecast
Infectious disease modeling - Abstract:
- Respiratory diseases present severe global burden. My dissertation focuses on modeling respiratory disease dynamics, aiming for better policymaking. By using influenza-like illness in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and COVID-19 in the United States as two examples, my dissertation presents a classical epidemiological investigation of respiratory disease dynamics. It approached from four perspectives through four research projects. Chapter 2 started with a quantitative description of the seasonality of the respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics and found the unique transmission pattern. Following the conclusions from Chapter 2, Chapter 3 discussed the mechanisms behind such dynamics. As Chapter 3 showed the highly nonlinearity of the dynamics, Chapter 4 evaluated the forecasting tools for handling noisy data and proposed the feasibility of machine learning in predicting respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. Chapter 5 extended the time horizon to the next 10 years and assessed the benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment in managing COVID-19 in the US through scenario modeling. My research helps deepen the understanding of the respiratory disease dynamics and suggests prevention strategies tailored to the exact situations of the disease transmission. As respiratory viral infection continues to be a prevention focus in global health, studies in this field will keep growing to reveal the mysteries and help us better prepared. It is our goal to keep respiratory disease dynamics under control and improve health qualities in a world living with a changeable environment.