The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk Through a Storyline Approach
Open Access
- Author:
- Pettett, Abby
- Graduate Program:
- Meteorology and Atmospheric Science
- Degree:
- Master of Science
- Document Type:
- Master Thesis
- Date of Defense:
- May 25, 2022
- Committee Members:
- David Stensrud, Program Head/Chair
Colin M. Zarzycki, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor
Kelly Lombardo, Committee Member
Kevin Andrew Bowley, Committee Member - Keywords:
- Extreme event attribution
Storyline approach
1996 Mid-Atlantic Flood
Rain-on-snow - Abstract:
- In the northeastern region of the United States, rain-on-snow (ROS) flood events can cause significant economic and infrastructural damage. The Northeastern Flood of January 1996 was a particularly devastating ROS event, leading to billions of dollars in damages and numerous fatalities across much of Pennsylvania and portions of New York. This study uses a storyline attribution method to evaluate how the 1996 ROS flood will change in future warmer climates for the Susquehanna River Basin. The 14km Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was used to hindcast the 1996 event and simulate it in five counterfactual climates. The counterfactual climate scenarios include four future climates at +1K, +2K, +3K, and +4K above pre-industrial conditions and one past climate at pre-industrial conditions. Results from these simulations show a nonlinear trend of flood magnitude with warming, with a maximum in flood magnitude at +1K warming. Spatial variations with warming were found in the runoff and river discharge variables, indicating flooding risks could be more confined to the northern portion of the Susquehanna River Basin as the climate warms past 1 Kelvin. There is a timing shift evident in the snowmelt and runoff as the climate warms, indicating the peak flooding and maximum flood risk will occur closer to the onset of the event with continued warming.