The Future of Latino Catholicism in the United States: A Population Projection from 2010 to 2060
Open Access
- Author:
- Tucker, Catherine Denise
- Graduate Program:
- Sociology
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- January 21, 2014
- Committee Members:
- Jennifer Lynne Van Hook, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor
Roger Kent Finke, Committee Member
Jenny Trinitapoli, Committee Member
Leif Jensen, Committee Member - Keywords:
- Catholics
Latinos
Hispanics
Catholicism
Population projections
demography
forecasting - Abstract:
- The latest survey data from Pew Research Center and National Survey of Family Growth are applied to the 2010 Census Bureau numbers to project the U.S. Catholic population from 2010 to 2060. I hypothesize that immigration and the assimilation of Latinos plays a powerful role in the future growth or decline of the Catholic Church. Assimilation directly affects two main components of religious growth, fertility and switching, and influences exogamous marriage rates. I also model how changing immigration patterns will affect the future composition and growth of the U.S. Catholic Church. I used cohort component projection methods with three varied assumptions for each of the four components: immigration, fertility, exogamy, and switching. The three assumptions corresponded with low, medium, and high levels of assimilation. I presented results for each component separately to asses the individual impact, and then created combined scenarios with the lowest and highest levels of assimilation in the population. I find that high levels of assimilation are associated with lower levels of future growth for Latino Catholics and that by 2060, the growth of the Catholic will be approximately zero. Low levels of assimilation are associated with high sustained levels of growth for the Latino Catholic population across the entire projection period. Immigration, not affected by assimilation, had the greatest impact on the future size and growth of the Catholic population, mirroring the historical reliance on immigrants for growth of the institution. Switching and religious exogamy had the least impact on the future size and growth of Latinos as part of the overall U.S. Catholic population. This suggests that the demographic components of fertility and immigration were more integral to the growth of the Church than the religious behaviors of switching and exogamy. In all projections, Latinos are expected to make up the majority of total Catholics in the United States by 2060, and more than three-quarters of young Catholics. The Latino population is projected to fuel all of the future growth of the U.S. Catholic population, though growth slows across five decades, and in the highest assimilation scenario falls to almost zero.