Modeling the Impacts of Arctic Climate Change on Access and Development
Open Access
- Author:
- VanderBerg, Justin
- Graduate Program:
- Geography
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- August 30, 2013
- Committee Members:
- William Ewart Easterling Iii, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor
Andrew Mark Carleton, Committee Chair/Co-Chair
John Anthony Kelmelis, Committee Member
Dr Anastasia Shcherbakova, Special Member - Keywords:
- Arctic
Climate Change
Economics
Development
Access
Accessibility
Infrastructure
Scenario Analysis
Location Analysis - Abstract:
- The accelerating pace of Arctic climate change is creating economic opportunities in the newly accessible North. Reductions in sea ice are permitting increasing annual transits of the Northern Sea Route and expanded resource exploration throughout the Arctic Ocean. Additional infrastructure in the form of new and expanded ports and roads are required in order to utilize these emerging opportunities. The timing and location of physical changes allows for estimates of infrastructure development that will facilitate expanding Arctic accessibility, which it turn allows for utilization of emerging opportunities. This dissertation establishes the Climate Infrastructure and Accessibility Model (CIAM) that explores the relationship between current physical constraints and economic development patterns, and projects how those patterns may change in response to anticipated changes. CIAM incorporates sea ice projections from the Max Planck Institute’s Earth System Model (ESM) with infrastructure projections developed from literature-derived port citing criteria and theory-derived location factors, to project changes in Arctic accessibility throughout the 21st century. Accessibility change then identifies how the Arctic economy is likely to reconfigure under changed physical conditions. CIAM projects accessibility changes under four scenarios built on two physical pathways and two economic pathways, thus investigating a range of potential future conditions. The results suggest unequal impacts with Russia, Alaska, and western Canada emerging as the new Arctic development centers. Furthermore, CIAM projects that trans-Arctic shipping routes will become increasingly efficient, although not necessarily shorter through utilization of increasingly open coastal waters. This dissertation elucidates future Arctic economic configurations, but more importantly, establishes a framework for exploring integrated impacts of physical and economic change.