Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps
Open Access
- Author:
- Gu, Qinxue
- Graduate Program:
- Meteorology and Atmospheric Science
- Degree:
- Master of Science
- Document Type:
- Master Thesis
- Date of Defense:
- June 16, 2020
- Committee Members:
- Melissa Marie Gervais, Thesis Advisor/Co-Advisor
Laifang Li, Committee Member
George Spencer Young, Committee Member
David Jonathan Stensrud, Program Head/Chair - Keywords:
- Decadal climate prediction
Self-organizing map
North Atlantic
North Pacific - Abstract:
- Decadal climate prediction can provide invaluable information for decisions made by government agencies and industry. Modes of internal variability of the ocean play an important role in determining the climate on decadal time scales. This study explores the possibility of using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify decadal climate variability, measure theoretical decadal predictability, and conduct decadal predictions of internal climate variability within a long control simulation. SOM is applied to an 11-year running mean winter Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic within the Community Earth System Model 1850 pre-industrial simulation to identify patterns of internal variability in SSTs. Transition probability tables are calculated to identify preferred paths through the SOM with time. Results show both persistence and preferred evolutions of SST depending on the initial SST pattern. This method also provides a measure of the predictability of these SST patterns, with the North Atlantic being predictable at longer lead times than the North Pacific. In addition, decadal SST predictions using persistence, a first order Markov Chain, and lagged transition probabilities are conducted. The lagged transition probability predictions have a reemergence of prediction skill around lag 15 for both domains, indicating the ability of SOM to capture aspects of the internal variability of the system.