VULNERABILITY OF THAI RICE PRODUCTION TO SIMULTANEOUS CLIMATE AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE: A DOUBLE EXPOSURE ANALYSIS
Open Access
- Author:
- Sangpenchan, Ratchanok
- Graduate Program:
- Geography
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- June 23, 2011
- Committee Members:
- Brent Yarnal, Committee Chair/Co-Chair
William Easterling, Committee Member
John Kelmelis, Committee Member
James Shortle, Committee Member - Keywords:
- Vulnerability
Climate change
Double exposure analysis
Rice
Thailand - Abstract:
- This dissertation explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change –– so-called “double exposure.†Both processes influence Thailand’s rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, the research adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving (in order) a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model. Using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at the provincial level, the first and second phases together identify the key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability –– exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Results show that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. The results also show the geographical distribution of vulnerability across the country and locate four provinces with low vulnerability to the double exposure. In the third phase, for each of these four provinces, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change as projected by two downscaled global climate models. Climate change-only scenarios demonstrate that yields are expected to decrease 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054 under projected changes in climate and rising CO2 levels. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology. Moreover, disseminating these advancements requires the strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.