The effectiveness of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic control is improved via a radar image generational algorithm developed to improve FAA convective forecasts by generating an ensemble of radar image realizations capable of being integrated into air traffic flow management software. The algorithm has the potential to result in a considerable cost savings to airlines and consumers. The algorithm not only accounts for a forecasted convective probability, but also incorporates a likely two-dimensional convective storm pattern, a characteristic currently absent in the FAA convective forecast. The ensemble forecast will provide the FAA with information on the fractional horizontal area the convective storm will cover, the two-dimensional shape of the convective storm, and the relative uncertainty associated with the forecast obtained by comparing the forecast radar images within the ensemble to each other. This information will be used to drive an existing air traffic flow model to produce an ensemble prediction of the air traffic capacity on routes into heavily utilized airports. At present, the algorithm successfully produces a single radar image realization containing the correct convective probability and a similar convective pattern.
