Spatial heterogeneities in epidemic connectivity in real landscapes
Open Access
- Author:
- Bharti, Nita
- Graduate Program:
- Biology
- Degree:
- Doctor of Philosophy
- Document Type:
- Dissertation
- Date of Defense:
- September 16, 2009
- Committee Members:
- Grenfell, Dissertation Advisor/Co-Advisor
Bryan T Grenfell, Committee Member
Ottar N Bjornstad, Committee Chair/Co-Chair
Peter John Hudson, Committee Member
Alan Maceachren, Committee Member - Keywords:
- infectious disease
metapopulation
epidemiology
measles
Niger - Abstract:
- Though largely controlled in developed countries, many vaccine-preventable human infections are major public health issues in many areas of the world. Specifically, parts of Africa have extremely high incidence of the directly transmitted diseases measles and meningitis. For directly transmitted pathogens, transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behavior across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics will help define and predict outbreak patterns. This work examines the underlying mechanisms for spatial heterogeneities in host disease burden and risk across spatial scales, from regional dynamics to seasonal outbreaks in individual cities. Using spatially explicit reported cases from recent measles and meningitis outbreaks in Niger, as well as highly detailed measles incidence from pre-vaccination England and Wales, I assess regional variations in movement and contact patterns relating to outbreaks as well as mechanisms for seasonal forcing in cities. Previously studied human disease systems emphasize the importance of real landscapes and host movements in understanding disease transmission across space. To identify critical elements of spatiotemporal disease dynamics in Niger, this work explores dynamic disease models, transnational contact clusters, road networks that facilitate connectivity, and agricultural seasonality. This work highlights the need to understand locally specific patterns of spatial connectivity and host movement to inform disease management and vaccine policy.